Mathematical Studies Internal Assessment
How is the average number of babies born per woman affected by the Democracy score in Iran?
Introduction
This paper is an investigation that aims to establish how the average number of babies born per woman is affected by the Democracy score of Iran. Iran, which is also referred to as the Islamic Republic of Iran or even Persia, is a country that is located in Western Asia. It is very populated with over 80 million inhabitants and is the second-largest country in the Middle East region. The capital city of Iran is Tehran, which is the most populous in Western Asia. The dominant religion in Iran is Islam, with over ninety percent of the population practicing Islam. Iran has a population that consists of people from different ethnicities, such as Persians and Lurs. Politically, Iran is governed by an autocratic Supreme Leader. There is, however, a president who is voted in by the citizens of Iran and who is governed by the Supreme Leader.
The Study and Findings
Democracy is a government system that, in essence, gives power to the people and enables them to be well represented. In democratic governments, all the people are allowed to vote for their leaders to ensure equality and promote human rights. An autocratic government is more or less the opposite of a democratic government, and supreme power is given to one individual who makes all the decisions. In this day and age, most nations have adopted a democratic government, with some exhibiting a few elements of autocracy. This indicates an increase in the level of democracy with time.
The average number of babies born per woman, also known as the fertility rate is a vital population index that is often used to investigate the population growth rate (Abbasi-Shavazi, McDonald, and Hosseini-Chavoshi, 2009). Over time, the fertility rate has decreased due to modernization as well as other factors. My hypothesis given the facts mentioned above is that an increase in a democracy leads to a decrease in the average number of children per woman in Iran (Abbasi-Shavazi, McDonald, and Hosseini-Chavoshi, 2009).
The data used to test the hypothesis has been obtained from Gap minder, a non-profit organisation developed with the aim of promoting global development and achieving the United Nations Sustainability Goals. Because of its political neutrality, this website and source of information is reliable. The Data consists of four elements or instead variables which are; time in years from 1961 to 2010, the average number of babies born per woman per year, the free score per year which ranges from -10 to 10, and finally the total sum of the democracy score and the average number of children per woman (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010). The democratic score consists of such a range since it is a measure of autocracy and democracy. Complete and total autocracy is represented by -10 while complete, and a democracy score of 10 represents full democracy.
The data from Iran is shown below:
| Year | Babies born per woman | Democracy score | Sum of total |
| 1961 | 6.92 | -10 | -3.08 |
| 1962 | 6.91 | -10 | -3.09 |
| 1963 | 6.9 | -10 | -3.1 |
| 1964 | 6.87 | -10 | -3.13 |
| 1965 | 6.83 | -10 | -3.17 |
| 1966 | 6.77 | -10 | -3.23 |
| 1967 | 6.7 | -10 | -3.3 |
| 1968 | 6.62 | -10 | -3.38 |
| 1969 | 6.53 | -10 | -3.47 |
| 1970 | 6.44 | -10 | -3.56 |
| 1971 | 6.36 | -10 | -3.64 |
| 1972 | 6.29 | -10 | -3.71 |
| 1973 | 6.24 | -10 | -3.76 |
| 1974 | 6.21 | -10 | -3.79 |
| 1975 | 6.21 | -10 | -3.79 |
| 1976 | 6.24 | -10 | -3.76 |
| 1977 | 6.29 | -10 | -3.71 |
| 1978 | 6.35 | -10 | -3.65 |
| 1979 | 6.42 | 0 | 6.42 |
| 1980 | 6.48 | -2 | 4.48 |
| 1981 | 6.54 | -4 | 2.54 |
| 1982 | 6.52 | -6 | 0.52 |
| 1983 | 6.47 | -6 | 0.47 |
| 1984 | 6.37 | -6 | 0.37 |
| 1985 | 6.22 | -6 | 0.22 |
| 1986 | 6.01 | -6 | 0.01 |
| 1987 | 5.76 | -6 | -0.24 |
| 1988 | 5.47 | -6 | -0.53 |
| 1989 | 5.15 | -6 | -0.85 |
| 1990 | 4.82 | -6 | -1.18 |
| 1991 | 4.48 | -6 | -1.52 |
| 1992 | 4.14 | -6 | -1.86 |
| 1993 | 3.81 | -6 | -2.19 |
| 1994 | 3.5 | -6 | -2.5 |
| 1995 | 3.22 | -6 | -2.78 |
| 1996 | 2.96 | -6 | -3.04 |
| 1997 | 2.73 | 3 | -0.27 |
| 1998 | 2.53 | 3 | -0.47 |
| 1999 | 2.36 | 3 | -0.64 |
| 2000 | 2.21 | 3 | -0.79 |
| 2001 | 2.09 | 3 | -0.91 |
| 2002 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| 2003 | 1.93 | 3 | -1.07 |
| 2004 | 1.87 | -6 | -4.13 |
| 2005 | 1.83 | -6 | -4.17 |
| 2006 | 1.81 | -6 | -4.19 |
| 2007 | 1.79 | -6 | -4.21 |
| 2008 | 1.78 | -6 | -4.22 |
| 2009 | 1.77 | -7 | -5.23 |
| 2010 | 1.77 | -7 | -5.23 |
By investigating the data, it is clear that Iran experienced the lowest level of democracy from 1961 to 1978. The highest democracy score achieved in Iran is three, and that is between the years 1997 and 2003. The democracy score is inconsistent and increases and decreases at different intervals. The fertility rate decreases with time. The highest average is 6.92 in the year 1961, while the lowest is 1.77 in the years 2009 and 2010
To further investigate the trend of average babies born per woman over time, the above bar chart was plotted using the data from Iran. It is clear as well from this bar chart that the fertility rate decreases with time. There was a steady decrease from 1961 to around 1982, and after that, there was a rapid decline to 2010. Several factors could be responsible for this kind of trend. Some of these factors include wealth, education, religion, marriage, modernization, and employment.
In Iran, access to education for everyone and especially women has increased over the years. Women who are well educated are highly unlikely to have many children. Several studies conducted in several countries in the world have proven that an increase in education levels leads to a decrease in fertility rate in women. This could explain the observed declining trend in the average number of children per woman. Women who are well educated fully understand the costs and effort needed to raise a child. Most of these women are determined to provide better opportunities in terms of education and livelihood for their children than they received. It would be hard to raise several children and provide them all with the best of everything. This has resulted in women opting to have fewer children who they can adequately provide for. Women who are well educated are also highly likely to gain meaningful employment. Over the years, access to equal employment opportunities for both men and women has increased, although only slightly but useful enough to bring about a change. Most women are trying to build their careers, and having several children hinders their career development goals as motherhood in itself is quite time-consuming. Most women have therefore opted to have fewer children to enable them to pursue their ambitions and hence to lead to a significant drop in the average number of children born per woman.
Marriage practices have changed significantly over time in Iran due to influence from other cultures and modernization. Some partners are allowed to choose their husband or wife, which is significantly different from arranged marriages that were common in previous times. In such marriages contrary to arranged marriages, women are allowed to contribute and help make family decisions. The number of children is an example of such decisions. This has resulted in a reduction in the mean number of infant’s conceived per woman over time. There has also been increased use of birth control measures, which have been normalized and made easily accessible in these marriages, and thus this could explain the decrease in the average number of children per woman (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010).
The Western culture and modernization, in general, have had a significant impact on the practices of people from Iran over time. The Western culture encourages women to have just a few babies, and due to the spread of communication and the internet, these practices have seeped their way into Iran. This has resulted in the decline seen in the average number of children per woman. Health is another factor that has had an influence on the fertility rate. Over time, people in Iran have changed their livelihood practices, including eating habits, just like the rest of the world. Women are involved in less active activities due to the advancement in technology. There is a device that can do every possible kind of work or make it easier to do certain activities. Most people no longer grow their food and depend on processed foods that contain several chemicals and substances. This has led to a notable increase in health complications all over the world.
These health complications have made it hard for women to bear more children and thus leading to a decrease in the average number of children per woman over time (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010).
To further investigate the trend of democracy score over time, the above bar chart was plotted using the data. At first glance, there is no clear trend in the democracy score against time. The democracy score can, however, be seen to be almost constant at specific periods. The democracy score was constant from 1961 to 1978. After that, there was a democracy score of 0, then a constant democracy score of -6 from 1980 to 1998. The democracy score then increased to 3 and remained constant from 1997 to 2003. The democracy score after that declined again to -6 then -7. The main factor affecting the democracy score is the leadership or the people in power at a particular time in Iran, which can be described as political time periods. Another factor is conflicts.
The leadership in Iran has undergone significant changes over time. Between 1961 and 1978, Iran was under the leadership of an autocratic leader named Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, otherwise known as the Shah. This means that he made all the decisions in Iran. The Shah was very brutal and did not entertain any political opposition. Political critics of the Shah were often imprisoned, tortured, or even sent into exile. Under the leadership of the Shah, the country was filled with corruption, and due to this, there were a lot of protests during Shah’s regime. This explains the deficient democracy score between 1961 and 1978. In 1978 there were major protests all over the country due to Shah’s leadership, and in 1979, the Revolution began, and Iran held a referendum and obtained a constitution. This explains the increase in democracy score from -10 to -6. From 1980 to 1989, under the leadership of an autocratic leader, the Iran-Iraq war took place. In 1997, Iran was under the leadership of a reformist Mohammed Khatami, who tried to make the country more democratic. This explains the sharp increase from -6 to 3 in the democracy score. The democracy score after that decreased significantly to -6 under the rule of another autocratic leader. The presidential elections in 2009 brought the 2005 president back into power, and the results were widely disputed. This signified a decrease in democracy from -6 to -7. From all the above instances, it is apparent that the observed trend in the bar chart is due to the leadership in Iran at specific time periods.
Poverty is a factor that has an influence on the democracy score. Due to several wars and lousy leadership in Iran, a significant majority of people have ended up miserable. With poverty, comes a lack of power and influence, and this has resulted in a lack of worth in some of its people. The rich and other people in power after that can easily take control and often make laws that are in favor of them and their practices. Since the rich only constitute a minor part of the population, the democracy score is then affected. The wider the gap between the rich and the poor, the less the democracy score
Scatter plot
A scatter plot is a tool that is used to analyze the relationships between two variables. The intersecting points reveal the relationship patterns of the variables.
The scatter plot above shows the association of the average children per woman and the democracy score. There does not seem to be any observable trend or relationship between average children per woman and the democracy score (Povey, and Poya, 1999). When democracy is at -10, the average of children per woman is seen to be high. This indicates that when the democracy score is low, the fertility rate is relatively high. When the democracy score is at -6, the average number of children per woman ranges from a relatively small amount to a relatively high number. It is, therefore, difficult to explain the relationship between the average number of children per woman and the democracy score (Povey, and Poya, 1999). It can be said to be somewhat complicated. It is also worth noting that the points are densely populated, where the democracy score is -6. The plot further shows some points which seem to be outliers when the democracy ranges from -4 to 0. There is another slightly dense distribution of points when the democracy is 3.
An average number of children per woman is seen to be relatively low. This demonstrates that an increase in the democracy score leads to a decrease in the average number of children per woman (Abbasi-Shavazi et al., 2009) There is evidence of a negative relationship between fertility rate and the democracy score (Povey, and Poya, 1999). This means that an increase in democracy score leads to a decrease in the average number of children per woman, while a reduction in the democracy score increases the average number of children per woman and thus supports my hypothesis (Abbasi-Shavazi et al., 2009). There is, however, not enough proof from the scatter plot to draw a meaningful conclusion. There is, therefore, a need to compute a correlation coefficient to explain the association between the two variables further.
Correlation
Correlation is mostly used to measure whether there is the existence of a linear relationship for two variables of a numerical nature (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010). If the variables deviate in the same direction, then the correlation is said to be positive which means that an increase in one variable will lead to the rise of another variable, and a decrease in one variable will lead to a corresponding reduction in a response variable (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010). If the variables deviate in different directions, then the correlation is said to be negative. In other and more straightforward terms, an increase in one variable will lead to a decrease in the other variable, and a reduction in one variable will lead to a rise in a response variable (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010).
Scatter plots are used to determine whether there is negative, positive, or no correlation. It is, however, worth noting that no correlation or lack of correlation does not necessarily and automatically mean there exists no relationship or association between the variables. It merely points out that there exists no linear relationship regarding the variables, which could also mean that a non-linear relationship exists between the variables (Povey, and Poya, 1999).
A correlation coefficient is used to measure the degree of linear association of two variables and has a range of -1 to 1 (Povey, and Poya, 1999). When the correlation coefficient is 1, this indicates a perfect positive relationship. A correlation coefficient close to 1 is used to represent a strong positive correlation, while that close to 0 is used to represent a weak positive correlation (Abbasi-Shavazi et al., 2009). When the correlation coefficient is -1, this represents a perfect negative correlation, however, negative correlation coefficient close to -1 represents a robust negative correlation, while that close to 0 represents a weak negative correlation (Abbasi-Shavazi et al., 2009). When the correlation coefficient is 0, this clearly shows that there exists no noticeable linear relationship in the variables 1 (Povey, and Poya, 1999).
The correlation coefficient is computed by:
Here, n represents the number of pairs, x is the independent variable, while y is the dependent variable.
In our data, x is the democracy score, while y is the average children per woman. The number of pairs and data points in the dataset is 50. Substituting these numbers into the equation, we get a correlation coefficient of -0.61391, which means that the relationship between democracy and the average number of children per woman is a somewhat strong negative relationship (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010). Although the scatter plot displayed a complex correlation of the variables, the correlation coefficient shows that there exists a linear association between the two variables. This is further illustrated by the regression line plotted on the scatter plot below. The slope of the line is negative hence indicating a negative association
Conclusion
The data is seen to agree with my hypothesis, and therefore, it is safe to conclude that there is a negative association among the mean amount of infants born per woman and the democracy score in Iran. Thus, an increase in democracy score resultes in a decrease in the average number of babies born per woman, and a reduction in the democracy score increases the average number of babies born per woman (Lutz, Cuaresma, and Abbasi‐Shavazi, 2010).
Bibliography
Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J., McDonald, P. and Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., 2009. The fertility transition in Iran (Vol. 75, pp. 191-195). Retrieved from: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-90-481-3198-3.pdf
Lutz, W., Cuaresma, J.C. and Abbasi‐Shavazi, M.J., 2010. Demography, education, and democracy: Global trends and the case of Iran. Population and Development Review, 36(2), pp.253-281. Retrieved from: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00329.x?casa_token=XTatFXP5F8oAAAAA:VfI8yc0ISmvklGjo_2KkjWkAzrSHdplXJzZPJIlkaoX3v0LZBRxlT6csR8IcNN8tY0tlMVuUagIM
Povey, E.R. and Poya, M., 1999. Women, work and Islamism: Ideology and resistance in Iran. Zed Books. Retrieved from: https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=pPaHOfDNwnkC&oi=fnd&pg=PR7&dq=How+is+the+average+number+of+babies+born+per+woman+affected+by+the+Democracy+score+of+Iran%3F&ots=eTWENoUWZm&sig=LiLxhYCY7RiTYSuZzP9ySRFEeRs
